DR Congo

The Democratic Republic of Congo is the indispensable supplier of the global energy transition. It produced roughly 72% of the world's cobalt in 2025 and is now the world's second-largest copper producer, with output around 3.5 million tonnes. With over 70% of known global cobalt reserves and a population past 116 million, the DRC sits at the intersection of critical-minerals supremacy and a vast, underbuilt domestic market; real GDP grew an estimated 5.5% in 2025, driven almost entirely by extraction.

The 2025–26 story is defined by two state-engineered shifts. First, Kinshasa weaponised its cobalt dominance — a February 2025 export ban gave way to a hard quota capping exports ~48% below 2024 volumes, and cobalt prices roughly quintupled into a structural deficit. Second, the US moved decisively in, financing the Lobito rail corridor and signing a strategic-minerals partnership that gives US firms priority access — a direct challenge to Chinese dominance.

The distinctiveness is unmatched depth in transition-critical inputs — cobalt, copper, plus emerging lithium and coltan — alongside the Grand Inga hydropower potential. The dominant risk is equally stark: the Rwanda-backed M23 insurgency seized Goma and Bukavu in early 2025, and despite successive peace tracks the conflict continued into 2026. Governance opacity and an acute infrastructure deficit compound the downside — though the conflict is concentrated in the east, while the copper-cobalt heartland lies in the relatively secure southeast.