Congo

Congo enters 2026 as a small, oil-saturated CEMAC economy with nominal GDP of roughly US$15–15.7 billion in 2024 and GDP per capita near US$2,384, serving a population of about 6.4 million. Real growth was modest at 2.6% in 2024 and an estimated 3.1% in 2025, with inflation easing to 2.9% by April 2026 toward the regional 3% target. Hydrocarbons remain overwhelmingly dominant — about 80% of export receipts and roughly two-thirds of government revenue — even as crude output of around 255,000–270,000 bpd has drifted below its 2019 peak. The structural weakness is debt: public debt is projected near 97% of GDP by end-2025 and is officially classified as 'in distress.'

Congo's distinctiveness is its layered resource portfolio anchored by a newly minted LNG export business. Eni's Tango FLNG shipped the country's first LNG cargo in late February 2024 from the Marine XII block, with a larger second train adding scale, while TotalEnergies invests around US$600 million in Moho Nord and Trident Energy absorbs legacy Chevron and Total interests. Beyond oil, the country holds one of the Congo Basin's great forest endowments — woodland covers about 69% of the territory, with a raw-log export ban since January 2023 to force domestic processing — plus the Kola potash project (a US$1.9 billion EPC signed November 2024) and four state special economic zones at Pointe-Noire, Oyo-Ollombo, Ouesso and Brazzaville.

The defining risk is sovereign solvency entangled with opaque external debt and entrenched politics. With debt near 97% of GDP and China the largest bilateral creditor — owed roughly US$3.4 billion in 2022 and accounting for an estimated 27–34% of external debt even after a US$2.4 billion 2021 restructuring — fiscal space is thin and exposed to any oil-price downturn. The IMF concluded its ECF and a 2026 Post-Financing Assessment in March 2026, but President Denis Sassou Nguesso's re-election with a reported 94.82% in March 2026, amid boycotts and an election-day internet blackout, underscores the governance and transparency discount investors must apply.