Cabo Verde

Cabo Verde grew an estimated 5.2–5.9% in 2025, led by a tourism rebound, strong exports and private consumption, with growth expected to moderate to around 4.7% in 2026 as the sector normalizes. Inflation is converging toward about 2%, and the fiscal position has swung to surplus — Fitch estimated a budget surplus near 1.3% of GDP in 2025 from a 0.7% deficit in 2024. Public debt has fallen dramatically, from a 2021 peak around 145% of GDP to roughly 104.9% by end-2025, supporting Fitch's 'B' rating with a Positive Outlook.

Cabo Verde's distinctiveness is a stable, democratic, tourism-anchored archipelago pursuing diversification through the blue economy and services. Tourism is roughly 25% of GDP, with arrivals projected toward 1.3 million by 2026 as low-cost carriers expand connectivity. The government is finalizing its first National Strategy for Private Sector Development around tourism, the blue economy and digital services, and a Blue-X initiative raised €14m in late 2025 to fund blue-economy SMEs and diversify exports beyond canned tuna. In 2025 the World Bank confirmed its upper-middle-income status.

The defining risk is small-island scale and concentration. With an economy heavily dependent on tourism, exposed to external shocks, climate and energy-import costs, and still carrying public debt above 100% of GDP, Cabo Verde has limited buffers; IMF-supported programs (ECF and RSF) judge the debt sustainable but underline the need for continued consolidation and diversification.