Gambia

The Gambia enters 2026 on its firmest footing since the 2017 democratic transition, with real GDP expanding 5.7% in 2024 and the IMF estimating roughly 6.0% growth for 2025. Disinflation has been decisive: headline inflation fell from a September 2023 peak of 18.5% to 6.28% by February 2026, allowing the Central Bank of The Gambia to ease its policy rate to 14% in February 2026 from 17% held through 2024. Nominal GDP sits near US$2.5 billion for a population of about 2.82 million, placing per-capita income around US$852.

The investment thesis rests on two reliable foreign-exchange engines: tourism and remittances. Tourist arrivals recovered to roughly 232,000 in the 2024/25 season (+13% year-on-year), contributing close to 20% of GDP and supporting some 42,000 direct jobs, while diaspora remittances hit a record US$776 million in 2024 — about a third of GDP. An on-track IMF Extended Credit Facility, augmented by a Resilience and Sustainability Facility whose reviews were completed in December 2025, anchors fiscal credibility, and the 2026 budget targets a deficit of just 1.0% of GDP — the lowest in a decade.

The defining risk is the collision of elevated public debt with a contentious electoral calendar. Public debt stood at roughly 71-72% of GDP at end-2024 — sustainable but leaving thin fiscal space, with legacy costs from the 2024 OIC summit and recurring bailouts of utility NAWEC adding pressure. The December 5, 2026 presidential election, in which incumbent Adama Barrow seeks a third term, introduces governance uncertainty and the prospect of pre-election fiscal slippage atop a narrow, externally dependent export base.