Equatorial Guinea

Equatorial Guinea enters 2026 as a declining oil-and-gas economy whose headline prosperity masks deep structural strain. Nominal GDP was about US$12.8 billion in 2024 with GDP per capita near US$6,745 — among Africa's highest — across a population of roughly 1.8 million, yet the World Bank estimates a sharp 5.4% contraction in 2025 driven by falling hydrocarbon output, following barely positive growth of 0.9% in 2024. Inflation is contained around 2.4–3.2% for 2025, below the CEMAC threshold, and debt is moderate at roughly 33–36% of GDP. Hydrocarbons still represent about half of GDP and exports and over 70% of government revenue, but the core problem is geological: oil production has collapsed roughly 84% from its 2005 peak of about 380,000 bpd to an estimated 55,000–62,000 bpd in 2025.

The country's distinctiveness — and its investment thesis — now turns on gas more than oil. The Punta Europa complex on Bioko Island integrates LNG, methanol, LPG and power, and the government's 'Gas Mega Hub' strategy aims to backfill depleting domestic feedstock by aggregating stranded regional gas, including a signed agreement with Nigeria for a Gulf of Guinea pipeline and potential Cameroon supply. Fresh upstream commitments — ConocoPhillips Blocks B/4 and EG-27 and Chevron's roughly US$690 million Aseng gas project — aim to extend the asset life, while GEPetrol's 2024 takeover of ExxonMobil's Zafiro field signals a more nationalised operating era. The wager is whether EG can convert a mature oil province into a regional gas-processing hub before its plants run short of feed.

The defining risk is the convergence of resource depletion, governance entrenchment and human-development failure. Despite high per-capita income, poverty rose from 58.1% in 2022 to about 61% in 2025, the HDI ranks 133rd of 193, and the country scored just 15/100 on Transparency International's 2025 corruption index. President Teodoro Obiang Nguesso, in power since 1979 and the world's longest-serving head of state, presides over an opaque succession centred on vice-president and heir apparent Teodorin Obiang. For investors, this combines a shrinking resource base, recession risk and one of the world's weakest governance environments.