Liberia

Liberia enters 2026 on its strongest footing since the civil war, with the IMF confirming real GDP growth of 5.1% in 2025, up from 4.0% in 2024, and projecting roughly 5.1-5.4% for 2026. The expansion is mining-led: sector output surged 17.0% in 2025 as ArcelorMittal's concentrator came online. Inflation averaged 8.5% in 2025 but decelerated sharply to around 4.4% by the fourth quarter, while the fiscal deficit narrowed to 1.1% of GDP and public debt eased to 54.6% of GDP. Nominal GDP sits near US$5.0-5.6 billion across a population of 5.6 million.

Liberia's distinctiveness is a once-in-a-generation mining capex super-cycle anchored by ArcelorMittal's cumulative US$3.5 billion investment, the largest post-war FDI in the country. A new long-term Mineral Development Agreement was ratified on 30 January 2026, extending operatorship to 2050 with a feasibility study underway for 30Mt/yr capacity. The June 2025 inauguration of West Africa's first iron ore concentrator (producing 66%+ Fe magnetite) signals a move up the value chain, while gold has become the top extractive export by value. Liberia is also a strategic Atlantic gateway for Guinea's stranded iron ore.

The defining risk is acute commodity concentration paired with razor-thin external buffers. The IMF has flagged reserves of roughly US$576 million, equivalent to only about 2.0 months of import cover, leaving an economy dependent on iron ore, gold and rubber dangerously exposed to commodity-price swings. A contested rail-and-port access regime between incumbent ArcelorMittal and challenger Ivanhoe Atlantic/HPX adds infrastructure-policy uncertainty atop the price exposure.