Mali

Mali enters 2026 with stabilizing headline macro figures masking deep structural strain. Real GDP growth was roughly 4.1% in 2025 (World Bank), with the IMF projecting 5.5% for 2026 and the AfDB more optimistic at 5.6-6.0%, while inflation stayed low at about 2.8% in 2025 and is forecast near 2.3% in 2026, anchored by the euro-pegged CFA franc. Nominal GDP is around US$26.3-26.6 billion (2024). Notably, record 2025 gold prices lifted state mining revenue 6.4% to 888.5 billion CFA (~US$1.57 billion) even as industrial gold output fell 23% to 42.2 tonnes.

Mali's distinctiveness is twin-mineral leadership: it is Africa's second-largest gold producer (roughly 100 tonnes total including artisanal in 2024, gold near 80% of exports at about US$4.3 billion) and a fast-emerging top-tier lithium province. The Goulamina mine (Ganfeng Lithium) began production in December 2024 with Phase 1 capacity of 506,000 tonnes/yr of spodumene concentrate, scaling toward 1,000,000+ tonnes/yr in Phase 2. The 2023 Mining Code has amplified state capture, raising royalties from 6.5% to 10% and allowing state and local participation up to 35%.

The defining risk is security collapse and insurgency-driven economic strangulation. Since September 2025 the al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM has imposed a fuel blockade choking Bamako and the Kayes mining region, destroying more than 300 fuel tankers from Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire and Guinea, and an April 2026 offensive was described as the largest since 2012. The Russian Africa Corps (Wagner's successor) has failed to stabilize the country, leaving diesel-dependent mining operations and the country's main revenue base directly exposed.