Niger

Niger enters 2026 as one of Africa's fastest-growing economies on paper, with the World Bank reporting real GDP growth of 8.4% in 2024 (up from just 2.0% in 2023) and the IMF projecting 6.5-6.6% for 2025 as oil exports ramp toward capacity. Inflation fell from 9.1% in 2024 to roughly 4.2% projected in 2025, briefly turning negative mid-year, with monetary stability anchored by the euro-pegged CFA franc. Yet nominal GDP is only about US$19.4 billion (2024) across a population of 26-28 million growing at 3.3% a year, leaving GDP per capita near US$585-693.

Niger's distinctiveness is a structural transformation from stranded resource economy to oil exporter. The China-backed (CNPC) 1,950km Niger-Benin crude pipeline turned the previously landlocked Agadem field into an export commodity, driving the GDP surge, while the country holds world-class uranium reserves including Imouraren and is gold-rich. Post the July 2023 coup, Niger has pivoted from a French and Western orientation toward a sovereigntist resource-nationalist model — joining the AES bloc, exiting ECOWAS on 29 January 2025, and courting Russia, Iran and China.

The defining risk is resource nationalism colliding with landlocked export dependence under a sanctioned junta. The state can seize assets — it nationalized Orano's Somair in June 2025 — and capture revenue, but its single oil export artery runs through Benin, a former ECOWAS adversary that has repeatedly closed the border, making both foreign capital and the main revenue stream hostage to political disputes Niamey cannot fully control. Layered on top is an active jihadist insurgency, with Tillabéri among the deadliest regions in the Central Sahel in 2025.