Nigeria

Nigeria enters 2026 as Africa's largest economy and its most consequential reform story. Following the 2023 removal of the fuel subsidy and unification of the exchange rate, a brutal adjustment has given way to firmer ground: a mid-2025 GDP rebasing revised nominal 2024 output up 34% to ₦372.8 trillion (~$243bn), real growth held near 4% in 2025, and the disinflation is now real — headline inflation fell to 15.69% in April 2026 from a ~31% average in 2024, with the naira stabilising in a ₦1,400–1,520/USD band.

The thesis is a high-yield carry-and-reform play wrapped around a structural consumer story. Foreign capital has returned hard — capital importation hit a six-year-high $10.37bn in Q1 2026 — drawn by elevated yields and FX stability. Nigeria's distinctiveness is scale plus self-correction: a 240m-plus population, the continent's deepest fintech ecosystem, its dominant cultural export engine, and, with the Dangote refinery, a structural shift from fuel importer to net exporter of refined products.

The defining risk is the composition of the recovery: the inflows are overwhelmingly reversible portfolio money rather than sticky FDI, oil output still undershoots budget assumptions, and 15%-plus inflation continues to erode the consumer. Nigeria has fixed the price signals; it has not yet proven it can convert them into durable, broad-based investment.