Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone enters 2026 on a stabilising footing, with real GDP estimated to have grown 4.5% in 2025 (up from 4.4% in 2024) and projected near 4.8% in 2026, driven by mining and an agriculture sector revitalised under the government's Feed Salone initiative. The standout story is disinflation: headline inflation collapsed from roughly 30% in 2024 to a multi-decade low of 4.3% in December 2025, allowing the Bank of Sierra Leone to cut its policy rate by a cumulative 800 basis points to 16.8%. A January 2026 fuel-price increase pushed inflation back to 8.1% by February 2026, with the IMF projecting an average near 10.4% for the year.

The investment thesis rests on mineral re-industrialisation. Mining generated about US$1.12 billion in exports in 2024 and over 70% of export earnings, with iron ore dominant (~70% of mineral exports) via Kingho/Leone Rock's Tonkolili (57–58% Fe to China) and Marampa's premium 65% 'Marampa Blue'. Sierra Rutile remains a globally significant source of titanium-feedstock rutile, ilmenite and zircon. An IMF Extended Credit Facility — with the first and second reviews completed in December 2025 (about US$79.8 million disbursed) — anchors macro credibility, while diaspora-capital mobilisation is an emerging FDI channel.

The defining risk is debt and external fragility. Sierra Leone remains at high risk of debt distress, with foreign reserves down to roughly 1.5 months of imports at end-September 2025 and debt-service pressures rising sharply. Iron-ore output is exposed to opaque mining policy and Chinese demand, while imported-fuel and food-price shocks — amplified by Middle East-driven freight and oil costs — can quickly reverse hard-won disinflation, as the early-2026 rebound demonstrates.