Senegal

Senegal is undergoing the most consequential economic transition in its modern history, defined by two simultaneous shocks: the arrival of hydrocarbon production and the exposure of a concealed sovereign-debt crisis. First oil flowed from Woodside's Sangomar field in June 2024, and the BP/Kosmos Greater Tortue Ahmeyim floating-LNG project achieved first gas at end-2024 and its first cargo in 2025. This dual ramp drives extraordinary headline growth — the AfDB projects 10.3% in 2025, the IMF ~9% — before normalising toward ~4.9% in 2026.

Against this tailwind sits the defining political story. The sovereigntist administration of President Faye and Prime Minister Sonko — elected in March 2024 after a peaceful, contested transition — commissioned a forensic audit (published February 2025) that revealed systematic understatement of debt by the prior government: roughly $7bn in undisclosed borrowing, pushing debt to ~99.7% of GDP at end-2023 (the IMF estimates ~132% at end-2024). The IMF programme has been suspended amid an impasse over restructuring.

Senegal's distinctiveness for institutional capital is its democratic stability, WAEMU/CFA-franc anchoring, and role as the Francophone West African gateway, reinforced by DP World's Ndayane deep-water port. The animating risk is the inverse of the opportunity: the debt revelations have triggered three downgrades in a year and pushed Eurobond yields toward 20%, constraining fiscal space precisely as large 2026 repayments fall due.