Tanzania

Tanzania enters 2026 as one of East Africa's most stable macro performers. The IMF reports real GDP growth of about 6.0% in 2025 (up from 5.5% in 2024), with growth projected near 6.1–6.3% in 2026, supported by agriculture, mining and construction. Nominal GDP is approaching $95 billion, and headline inflation stood at just 3.3% in January 2026, comfortably within the Bank of Tanzania's 5% ceiling — a level it has held since 2021. Public debt is rated low-risk by both the IMF and World Bank.

Tanzania's distinctiveness is its blend of macro discipline and large-ticket resource and infrastructure pipeline. The ~$42 billion LNG terminal anchored on offshore gas, the Julius Nyerere hydropower dam, the Standard Gauge Railway, and Tanzania's role as a logistics gateway (including transit links relevant to the regional EACOP corridor) give it a diversified investment surface. Stable, low inflation and a sustainable debt profile make it a comparatively investable entry point into East Africa's growth story.

The defining risk shifted in late 2025 from purely economic to political. President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared winner of the October 2025 election with a contested ~98% of the vote, amid deadly protests, opposition disqualifications and an information blackout; the UN and rights groups reported deaths and mass detentions. Governance legitimacy, rule-of-law signalling and execution risk on mega-projects — not inflation or debt — now headline the country's risk profile.