Uganda

Uganda enters 2026 on an accelerating growth path tied to the imminent arrival of oil. The economy expanded 8.5% in the second quarter of FY2025/26 (up from 5.4% a year earlier), with full-year FY2025/26 growth projected at 6.5–7.0%; government figures put GDP at roughly $69.3 billion by June 2026 (President Museveni cited a rise from $34bn to $66bn over five years). Average inflation in FY2025/26 is estimated near 3.8%, below the Bank of Uganda's 5% target, though forecasters expect mild upward pressure in 2026 from oil-sector capital-goods demand and energy costs.

Uganda's defining distinctiveness is its oil moment. The Tilenga (TotalEnergies) and Kingfisher (CNOOC) fields around Lake Albert are targeted to come on stream in the second half of 2026, with the ~$5 billion-plus East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) reported around 80% complete and first commercial production targeted for mid-2026. Government projects initial oil revenue of about $600 million for FY2026/27, atop a young, fast-urbanising population and strengths in agriculture, tourism and a deepening financial sector.

The defining risk pairs governance with execution. The January 2026 election returned President Yoweri Museveni for a seventh term with 71.65% amid documented abuses, mass detentions and an internet shutdown — extending a long-running succession and civic-space question. Layered on top are oil-project timeline slippage, EACOP environmental and financing controversy, and the macro management of a coming oil-revenue windfall.